Membership of NATO remains a goal for most of the countries that once comprised the former Yugoslavia. Till now, Slovenia is the only country which has been invited to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, a step which went hand in hand with its entry into the European Union during the Spring of 2004. When will the gates be opened for Croatia, Albania and Macedonia, three countries who are well on their way to joining, and what will the future hold for those who are further down the pecking list or not sure about membership, like Montenegro, Bosnia, Serbia and Kosovo?

Croatia awaits the visit of American President George W. Bush to Zagreb during the first week of April. Whilst Croatian public sentiment is certainly not supportive of Bush, he is seen as a fool rather than a villain, as is the case over the border in Serbia because of Bush’s support for Kosovo’s independence drive. Croatia has not been influenced too badly by Bush’s chaotic and catastrophic War on Terrorism and as such his visit should, with the exception of some inevitable protests, be seen as a positive step for the Croatian government. Whether you like him or not, Bush’s presence still carries prestige and recognition. It is expected that during the NATO summit in Romania prior to Bush’s arrival Croatia will be offered membership to the organisation.

Whilst Albania was never part of Yugoslavia, despite plans for its acquisition by Tito during the late 1940s, the country is becoming ever more tied to the fortunes of other countries in the Balkans such as Macedonia and Croatia. This is partly because many Albanians live on the other side of Albania’s borders in Macedonia, Greece, Montenegro and Kosovo, but also for the simple fact that the Balkans isn’t a huge place, meaning that a country’s fate is influenced by those nearby. Albania has sensibly avoided becoming involved unnecessarily in the current Kosovo crisis and this is sure to be noticed and no doubt rewarded. Ongoing reforms across Albania are still essential, as shown by the explosions last week at an arms dump, but Albania is making solid progress and will most likely receive an invitation alongside Croatia.

Greece has already given Albania assurances this week that it will support them in achieving membership, but the same can not be said for Macedonia with the Greek Foreign Minister Dora Bakoyannis claiming that the name dispute between the two countries could be an impossible obstacle to surmount. An invitation of membership to NATO can be blocked by any member so it is essential that Macedonia solves this problem immediately. How is this to be done though, since by changing one’s name, a name which now has a fully fledged national identity attached to it, one can not help but feel that Macedonia is selling itself short. Is it not time that Greece was put in its place by other senior members of NATO who have seen no reason not to recognise Macedonia by its constitutional name “Republic of Macedonia”, such as the United States and the United Kingdom.

Other countries in the region face greater uncertainty. Montenegro has pinned its hopes on joining in 2012, which seems to be achievable so long as the country continues to tread the Western path that it is walking along currently. The situation for Bosnia is a little less clear since whilst the country has made known its intentions to push for membership it is any body’s guess when this would be likely to come into fruition. The country is still ravaged by a huge divide, separating it into two separate political entities, one for Serbs and the other for Muslims and Croats. Aside from the political division it is also clear that social divisions within the country are huge, firstly between the three ethnicities but also along other lines such as the urban-rural divide. The Bosnian Serbs were also on the receiving end of NATO air strikes in 1995 so it is unlikely that they will wish to cooperate either. Similarly, Serbia, a country which suffered at the hands of an 11 week NATO campaign in 1999, has shown lukewarm interest in joining and polls within the country show that the populous categorically reject it. The current situation with Kosovo will only harden the resolve of the Serbs. The potential for the the newly independent Kosovo to join NATO is still largely a pipe-dream, that is not to say that with concerted effort, cooperation from the international community and a little good will, especially with regards to Russian objections to UN membership, the situation could have changed ten years from now.

The quest to join NATO is not universally supported by those people who live in Croatia, Albania and Macedonia. They are perfectly aware that by joining NATO it could be inferred that they are offering themselves as toys to be placed in George W. Bush’s cot. Sadly this may well be the case, but this is still probably preferable to Russia, the playground bully, getting its hands on them.

Albanian Government report
AFP report on Bush’s visit to Croatia
Makfax article on Macedonia-Greece name dispute affecting NATO membership